Economic Forecast Methods

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Three methods of #forecasting

Technques

• Causal Methods
• Time Series Methods
• Qualitative Methods

Causal Methods - Relies on relationships between variables, relationships must be more than luck

• #Regression Analysis
• Multiple #Regression
• Qualitative #Regression
• Logit
• Probit

Time Series Methods - trends in data over time

• Trend Analysis
• Moving average
• Exponential Smoothing
• Trend and Seasonsal Decomposition
• Box-Jenkins Arima

Qualitative Methods - highlights unobservable variables, takes place of hard data sources

• Surveys
• Delphi Method
• Jury of Executive Opinion
• #Salesforce composites
• Consumer Market Survey